AITD class lesson 4: Mining will bring fortune, Consensus will generate value faster.
As we all know, Bitcoin is a decentralized digital currency, there is no central currency publisher. The question is that how first Bitcoin was generated if there are no publishers for Bitcoin. The answer is: Through Mining. https://preview.redd.it/ebm9zfvbotr51.jpg?width=640&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=798802bf75101284a9e6b111a66188c2b9b78d2a In January of 2009, Bitcoin father Satoshi nakamoto got the First Genesis Block through data mining on Bitcoin network and received 50 Bitcoins as rewards, therefore, first set of Bitcoins was official revealed. Since then, more and more Bitcoin mining labors started mining,as a result, they got tones of Bitcoins. Mining is not like real mining in Bitcoin, it depends on the consensus algorithm from Bitcoin networks, using mining machine continuously to calculate Block password. The mining machine which gets the correct answer will unlock Blocks and get Bitcoins ( In the Block) as rewards. The whole mining processes are kind of like purchase lottery, people who gets more numbers will get higher chance to match the winning number; The differences are that there are no second position prizes or third position prizes and people can not share prizes with other people. After explaining mining, let's take a look at consensus algorithm we mention earlier. The whole mining processes will count on consensus algorithm to process, we can consider consensus algorithm as “ Mining rules". Let's take Bitcoin as an example. POW algorithm used in Bitcoin network can be simply considering as contribution force algorithm . The algorithm requires that every single node has the right to start mining, it is the computing processes for Block password; In Blockchain Industry, it usually consider continuously computing processes for nodes mining as Hashrate contribution, unlock Blocks, gaining Bitcoin rewards possibilities will be higher if node's Hashrate contribution is higher. In the beginning period of Bitcoin, the difficulty is not high for mining, mining labor can unlocked Blocks easily and got rewards, as Bitcoin consensus is getting stronger, more and more people are starting joining mining Bitcoins. Difficulty will be higher if there are more competitors, Hashrate consumed by mining machine will be higher, at the same time, due to output has been cut into half for Bitcoin blocks, the profits from mining are continuously compressing, the Hashrate resources waste caused by POW algorithm was causing criticism from public. According to the developing Blockchain techniques, members within the industry are looking for low cost mining mode, therefore, POS, DPOS, POC algorithms started continuously appearing. These algorithms are getting ride of contribution forces algorithm from Bitcoin, building "Gaining Bitcoin will generate revenue""Small amount of witnesses are starting mining for blocks", "Disc capacity prove" multiple mining methods, enabling digital currency to apply in various scenarios.( Detail transformation processes will be explained in the next episode.) Currently, Consensus algorithm is transforming to simplify procedures, reducing resources usage direction, Only improved algorithm mechanism will get strong consensus. In the future, there will be many more algorithms appearing in the market, mining procedure will be simpler, fair, energy reduced. Next episode preview: The transformation path for consensus algorithm mechanism.
Hello. 👋🏻 Today we will tell you about ACIS-mining and its 3 best algorithms. 📌 With the advent of ASICs for mining, it became possible to mine Bitcoin in much larger quantities than using video cards. ASIC is an integrated circuit specialized to solve a specific problem, in our case, only for bitcoin mining. These schemes are many times more profitable than video cards, because with more power (hash calculation speed) they consume much less energy. This served as a good reason to create a cryptocurrency mining business. 📌 In bitcoin and other blockchain systems, the complexity of mining depends on how quickly the miners find the block. Compared with the GPU and CPU, specialized #ASIC miners solve #PoW puzzles better and are therefore able to quickly find new blocks. 📌 Since PoW is still the preferred mining consensus mechanism, we propose to take a multiple algorithm approach. Instead of trying to use algorithms which are ASIC resistant, we propose to use algorithms which have had ASIC miners for quite some time. These are: #SHA256, #Scrypt, and #X11. 🔹 The SHA-256 algorithm has a number of advantages over other information protection technologies. Over the years of use in the cryptocurrency industry, he has shown his resistance to various hacking attempts. 🔹 Scrypt is a cryptocurrency mining algorithm that was previously interesting to many single miners in view of its resistance to the so-called “hardware attack”. The speed of creating blocks in a Scrypt-based blockchain is about 30 seconds. The hashrate, like Ethash, is measured in Megahash per second. Scrypt, first of all, became popular due to its use in Litecoin #cryptocurrency. 🔹 X11 is an encryption algorithm in which eleven are used instead of one function. This means that this technology can provide a high degree of security, because in order to harm the system, an attacker will have to crack all 11 functions, which is very unlikely, because the changes made will be visible after breaking the first function, and developers will have a lot of time to protect the system before the hacker reaches the eleventh function. Since these miners are already in wide use, the distribution of mining should be fair and even. Furthermore, the use of three different algorithms results in a far less chance of any single person gaining a majority hash rate share. Lastly, we use the Multishield difficulty adjustment algorithm to prevent difficulty spike issues resulting from burst mining. Read more about PYRK mining solutions here: https://www.pyrk.org Read our Whitepaper to know more about the project: https://www.pyrk.org/Pyrk-Whitepaper.pdf https://preview.redd.it/rxmlr7wt1k251.png?width=1200&format=png&auto=webp&s=162f9ddaacb3cf3e137638464a208bdf25e50a21
Step by Step Guide to Starting Smart Mining of ViaBTC
In order to help our miners to get the best possible profits, now we present you the step by step guide to starting Smart Mining of ViaBTC. No time for hesitation, try Smart Mining now! Smart mining consists of two different mining modes, namely as “Manual Switch” and “Auto Switch”. Auto Switch provides an automated way of profitable mining using the designated algorithm to monitor the real-time status of possible returns. In comparison to manual switch, it’s more flexible and easier to keep tracking of your mining returns. 1. Enable Auto Switch It now supports BTC、BCH and BSV, besides, your assets in your account can also be converted into BTC on an hourly basis automatically. Before enabling auto switch mode, you’re required to configure smart mining URL: stratum+tcp://bitcoin.viabtc.com:3333; Enable Manual Switch This supports Bitcoin pool (BTC, BCH, BSV, FCH) and Ethereum pool (ETH, ETC). One-click switch address is different from the stratum URL for a specified coin. Details for one-click switch URL are listed as following: BTC/BCH/BSV/FCH: stratum+tcp://bitcoin.viabtc.com:3333 ETH/ETC: stratum+tcp://ethereum.viabtc.com:3333 Noted: Port 25 or 443 is available as an alternative option. 2. Go to www.viabtc.com then click [Settings] from the drop-down menu on your right hand side. https://preview.redd.it/6rvece3anm551.png?width=1400&format=png&auto=webp&s=bf1365d690542a9d49712fecf1c117e5e94c74f4 Click [Switch mining pool] under the [Mining Settings] to select a new coin type. https://preview.redd.it/8ag76racnm551.png?width=1400&format=png&auto=webp&s=2b79ffb7dfde4e0b7ab51bb584815a1b8b91f30c Select “Mode” and “Coin Type” https://preview.redd.it/7zmjh3ienm551.png?width=1400&format=png&auto=webp&s=2c2ff5f99265402def95717f4a28de71ffe17b32 Frequently Asked Questions What is the unique feature of Auto Switch compares to Manual Switch? It’s more flexible and easy to set up, SHA-256 mining algorithm compatible. How long will it take to be activated after enabling Auto Switch? Once Auto Switch is on, system will monitor the possible return rate of all compatible coins using a designated algorithm and switch to the one with higher profits, you may go to the Pool panel for more accurate mining status. Why I can’t see my earnings increased after enabling Auto Switch mode? Auto Switch mode demands high-efficiency when it switch between the current mined coins to the new one with possible high returns, specified using designated algorithm and current difficulty, thus it’s not a guarantee pass for high returns when “Auto Switch” is on. Is there any requirements of MIN. limit of hashrate before enabling Auto Switch? There is no minimum limit of hashrate in your account before enabling Auto Switch in your account. Which type of coins are supported in Auto Switch mode? Currently all types of coins in Bitcoin Pool are supported in Auto Switch mode, including BTC, BCH and BSV. When will the mining rewards distributed to my account? Rewards distribution are varies for different mining modes, and distribution time remained unchanged compares to the one in Manual Switch mode. Can I use part of hashrate to mine a designated coin after enabling Auto Switch? After enabling Auto Switch, hashrate connecting to your account will switch from one to the other automatically using a designated algorithm. Will I receive hashrate fluctuation notification after enabling Auto Switch? You’re required to set hashrate fluctuation notification for all compatible coins by the time enabling Auto Switch, more detailed guideline can be found here. How to check your current mining preference？ Go to www.viabtc.com first then enter [Pool] panel to check your current mining preference. When should I change my mining preference? It is recommended to use profit calculator to get a general idea of the theoretical earnings outcome when selecting mining preference.
Hello, community! 👋🏻 In this post, we will tell you about Proof-of-Work and Proof-of-Stake algorithms and why PYRK uses PoW. ⛏ Proof of work allows the blockchain to remain “clean”, allows the entire community to compete to verify the validity of transactions, and makes attacks on the system very costly. But is this cost of attack justified? Aste argues that it should be sufficient to make the double-spend attack too costly. ⛏ A double spend attack can occur in a situation where an attacker tries to send the same bitcoin to two different users. In such a case, the attacker would try to spend as many bitcoins as possible twice. This number is limited by the number of transactions that can fit in a block, which in value terms is currently about $ 2 million. ⛏ A transaction involving more than the total cost of transactions in the block will attract attention from the network. This puts a real limit on the size of a double spend of about $ 2 million. And although the duplication of transactions can be repeated several times sequentially or in parallel, we will neglect it in this calculation. 🏆 PYRK Proof-of-Work triple algorithm 🔹 PYRK takes a multiple algorithm approach. We propose to use algorithms which have had ASIC miners for quite some time. These are: SHA256, Scrypt, and X11. 🔹 Since these algorithms are already in wide use, the distribution of mining should be fair and even. 🔹 There’s a far less chance of any single person gaining a majority hash rate share when using three different algorithms simultaneously. 🔹 Also, we use the Multishield difficulty adjustment algorithm to prevent difficulty spike issues resulting from burst mining. 💡 The idea of multi-algorithm originated in Digibyte. Splitting the mining into three different algorithms effectively splits the amount of work performed by each algorithm to 33% of the total network hashrate. The triple algorithm approach helps to further protect the network from bad actors while also providing the preferred Proof-of-Work mechanism. Read more about PYRK project: https://www.pyrk.org https://preview.redd.it/3l5wegef9gc51.png?width=1200&format=png&auto=webp&s=7cb7391a1f3e01425de7eace49e674ac6f65c7ea
﷽ The Federal Reserve and the United States government are pumping extreme amounts of money into the economy, already totaling over $484 billion. They are doing so because it already had a goal to inflate the United States Dollar (USD) so that the market can continue to all-time highs. It has always had this goal. They do not care how much inflation goes up by now as we are going into a depression with the potential to totally crash the US economy forever. They believe the only way to save the market from going to zero or negative values is to inflate it so much that it cannot possibly crash that low. Even if the market does not dip that low, inflation serves the interest of powerful people. The impending crash of the stock market has ramifications for Bitcoin, as, though there is no direct ongoing-correlation between the two, major movements in traditional markets will necessarily affect Bitcoin. According to the Blockchain Center’s Cryptocurrency Correlation Tool, Bitcoin is not correlated with the stock market. However, when major market movements occur, they send ripples throughout the financial ecosystem which necessary affect even ordinarily uncorrelated assets. Therefore, Bitcoin will reach X price on X date after crashing to a price of X by X date.
Stock Market Crash
The Federal Reserve has caused some serious consternation with their release of ridiculous amounts of money in an attempt to buoy the economy. At face value, it does not seem to have any rationale or logic behind it other than keeping the economy afloat long enough for individuals to profit financially and politically. However, there is an underlying basis to what is going on which is important to understand in order to profit financially. All markets are functionally price probing systems. They constantly undergo a price-discovery process. In a fiat system, money is an illusory and a fundamentally synthetic instrument with no intrinsic value – similar to Bitcoin. The primary difference between Bitcoin is the underlying technology which provides a slew of benefits that fiat does not. Fiat, however, has an advantage in being able to have the support of powerful nation-states which can use their might to insure the currency’s prosperity. Traditional stock markets are composed of indices (pl. of index). Indices are non-trading market instruments which are essentially summaries of business values which comprise them. They are continuously recalculated throughout a trading day, and sometimes reflected through tradable instruments such as Exchange Traded Funds or Futures. Indices are weighted by market capitalizations of various businesses. Price theory essentially states that when a market fails to take out a new low in a given range, it will have an objective to take out the high. When a market fails to take out a new high, it has an objective to make a new low. This is why price-time charts go up and down, as it does this on a second-by-second, minute-by-minute, day-by-day, and even century-by-century basis. Therefore, market indices will always return to some type of bull market as, once a true low is formed, the market will have a price objective to take out a new high outside of its’ given range – which is an all-time high. Instruments can only functionally fall to zero, whereas they can grow infinitely. So, why inflate the economy so much? Deflation is disastrous for central banks and markets as it raises the possibility of producing an overall price objective of zero or negative values. Therefore, under a fractional reserve system with a fiat currency managed by a central bank – the goal of the central bank is to depreciate the currency. The dollar is manipulated constantly with the intention of depreciating its’ value. Central banks have a goal of continued inflated fiat values. They tend to ordinarily contain it at less than ten percent (10%) per annum in order for the psyche of the general populace to slowly adjust price increases. As such, the markets are divorced from any other logic. Economic policy is the maintenance of human egos, not catering to fundamental analysis. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth is well-known not to be a measure of actual growth or output. It is a measure of increase in dollars processed. Banks seek to produce raising numbers which make society feel like it is growing economically, making people optimistic. To do so, the currency is inflated, though inflation itself does not actually increase growth. When society is optimistic, it spends and engages in business – resulting in actual growth. It also encourages people to take on credit and debts, creating more fictional fiat. Inflation is necessary for markets to continue to reach new heights, generating positive emotional responses from the populace, encouraging spending, encouraging debt intake, further inflating the currency, and increasing the sale of government bonds. The fiat system only survives by generating more imaginary money on a regular basis. Bitcoin investors may profit from this by realizing that stock investors as a whole always stand to profit from the market so long as it is managed by a central bank and does not collapse entirely. If those elements are filled, it has an unending price objective to raise to new heights. It also allows us to realize that this response indicates that the higher-ups believe that the economy could crash in entirety, and it may be wise for investors to have multiple well-thought-out exit strategies.
Economic Analysis of Bitcoin
The reason why the Fed is so aggressively inflating the economy is due to fears that it will collapse forever or never rebound. As such, coupled with a global depression, a huge demand will appear for a reserve currency which is fundamentally different than the previous system. Bitcoin, though a currency or asset, is also a market. It also undergoes a constant price-probing process. Unlike traditional markets, Bitcoin has the exact opposite goal. Bitcoin seeks to appreciate in value and not depreciate. This has a quite different affect in that Bitcoin could potentially become worthless and have a price objective of zero. Bitcoin was created in 2008 by a now famous mysterious figure known as Satoshi Nakamoto and its’ open source code was released in 2009. It was the first decentralized cryptocurrency to utilize a novel protocol known as the blockchain. Up to one megabyte of data may be sent with each transaction. It is decentralized, anonymous, transparent, easy to set-up, and provides myriad other benefits. Bitcoin is not backed up by anything other than its’ own technology. Bitcoin is can never be expected to collapse as a framework, even were it to become worthless. The stock market has the potential to collapse in entirety, whereas, as long as the internet exists, Bitcoin will be a functional system with a self-authenticating framework. That capacity to persist regardless of the actual price of Bitcoin and the deflationary nature of Bitcoin means that it has something which fiat does not – inherent value. Bitcoin is based on a distributed database known as the “blockchain.” Blockchains are essentially decentralized virtual ledger books, replete with pages known as “blocks.” Each page in a ledger is composed of paragraph entries, which are the actual transactions in the block. Blockchains store information in the form of numerical transactions, which are just numbers. We can consider these numbers digital assets, such as Bitcoin. The data in a blockchain is immutable and recorded only by consensus-based algorithms. Bitcoin is cryptographic and all transactions are direct, without intermediary, peer-to-peer. Bitcoin does not require trust in a central bank. It requires trust on the technology behind it, which is open-source and may be evaluated by anyone at any time. Furthermore, it is impossible to manipulate as doing so would require all of the nodes in the network to be hacked at once – unlike the stock market which is manipulated by the government and “Market Makers”. Bitcoin is also private in that, though the ledge is openly distributed, it is encrypted. Bitcoin’s blockchain has one of the greatest redundancy and information disaster recovery systems ever developed. Bitcoin has a distributed governance model in that it is controlled by its’ users. There is no need to trust a payment processor or bank, or even to pay fees to such entities. There are also no third-party fees for transaction processing. As the ledge is immutable and transparent it is never possible to change it – the data on the blockchain is permanent. The system is not easily susceptible to attacks as it is widely distributed. Furthermore, as users of Bitcoin have their private keys assigned to their transactions, they are virtually impossible to fake. No lengthy verification, reconciliation, nor clearing process exists with Bitcoin. Bitcoin is based on a proof-of-work algorithm. Every transaction on the network has an associated mathetical “puzzle”. Computers known as miners compete to solve the complex cryptographic hash algorithm that comprises that puzzle. The solution is proof that the miner engaged in sufficient work. The puzzle is known as a nonce, a number used only once. There is only one major nonce at a time and it issues 12.5 Bitcoin. Once it is solved, the fact that the nonce has been solved is made public. A block is mined on average of once every ten minutes. However, the blockchain checks every 2,016,000 minutes (approximately four years) if 201,600 blocks were mined. If it was faster, it increases difficulty by half, thereby deflating Bitcoin. If it was slower, it decreases, thereby inflating Bitcoin. It will continue to do this until zero Bitcoin are issued, projected at the year 2140. On the twelfth of May, 2020, the blockchain will halve the amount of Bitcoin issued when each nonce is guessed. When Bitcoin was first created, fifty were issued per block as a reward to miners. 6.25 BTC will be issued from that point on once each nonce is solved. Unlike fiat, Bitcoin is a deflationary currency. As BTC becomes scarcer, demand for it will increase, also raising the price. In this, BTC is similar to gold. It is predictable in its’ output, unlike the USD, as it is based on a programmed supply. We can predict BTC’s deflation and inflation almost exactly, if not exactly. Only 21 million BTC will ever be produced, unless the entire network concedes to change the protocol – which is highly unlikely. Some of the drawbacks to BTC include congestion. At peak congestion, it may take an entire day to process a Bitcoin transaction as only three to five transactions may be processed per second. Receiving priority on a payment may cost up to the equivalent of twenty dollars ($20). Bitcoin mining consumes enough energy in one day to power a single-family home for an entire week.
Trading or Investing?
The fundamental divide in trading revolves around the question of market structure. Many feel that the market operates totally randomly and its’ behavior cannot be predicted. For the purposes of this article, we will assume that the market has a structure, but that that structure is not perfect. That market structure naturally generates chart patterns as the market records prices in time. In order to determine when the stock market will crash, causing a major decline in BTC price, we will analyze an instrument, an exchange traded fund, which represents an index, as opposed to a particular stock. The price patterns of the various stocks in an index are effectively smoothed out. In doing so, a more technical picture arises. Perhaps the most popular of these is the SPDR S&P Standard and Poor 500 Exchange Traded Fund ($SPY). In trading, little to no concern is given about value of underlying asset. We are concerned primarily about liquidity and trading ranges, which are the amount of value fluctuating on a short-term basis, as measured by volatility-implied trading ranges. Fundamental analysis plays a role, however markets often do not react to real-world factors in a logical fashion. Therefore, fundamental analysis is more appropriate for long-term investing. The fundamental derivatives of a chart are time (x-axis) and price (y-axis). The primary technical indicator is price, as everything else is lagging in the past. Price represents current asking price and incorrectly implementing positions based on price is one of the biggest trading errors. Markets and currencies ordinarily have noise, their tendency to back-and-fill, which must be filtered out for true pattern recognition. That noise does have a utility, however, in allowing traders second chances to enter favorable positions at slightly less favorable entry points. When you have any market with enough liquidity for historical data to record a pattern, then a structure can be divined. The market probes prices as part of an ongoing price-discovery process. Market technicians must sometimes look outside of the technical realm and use visual inspection to ascertain the relevance of certain patterns, using a qualitative eye that recognizes the underlying quantitative nature Markets and instruments rise slower than they correct, however they rise much more than they fall. In the same vein, instruments can only fall to having no worth, whereas they could theoretically grow infinitely and have continued to grow over time. Money in a fiat system is illusory. It is a fundamentally synthetic instrument which has no intrinsic value. Hence, the recent seemingly illogical fluctuations in the market. According to trade theory, the unending purpose of a market or instrument is to create and break price ranges according to the laws of supply and demand. We must determine when to trade based on each market inflection point as defined in price and in time as opposed to abandoning the trend (as the contrarian trading in this sub often does). Time and Price symmetry must be used to be in accordance with the trend. When coupled with a favorable risk to reward ratio, the ability to stay in the market for most of the defined time period, and adherence to risk management rules; the trader has a solid methodology for achieving considerable gains. We will engage in a longer term market-oriented analysis to avoid any time-focused pressure. The Bitcoin market is open twenty-four-hours a day, so trading may be done when the individual is ready, without any pressing need to be constantly alert. Let alone, we can safely project months in advance with relatively high accuracy. Bitcoin is an asset which an individual can both trade and invest, however this article will be focused on trading due to the wide volatility in BTC prices over the short-term.
Technical Indicator Analysis of Bitcoin
Technical indicators are often considered self-fulfilling prophecies due to mass-market psychology gravitating towards certain common numbers yielded from them. They are also often discounted when it comes to BTC. That means a trader must be especially aware of these numbers as they can prognosticate market movements. Often, they are meaningless in the larger picture of things.
Volume – derived from the market itself, it is mostly irrelevant. The major problem with volume for stocks is that the US market open causes tremendous volume surges eradicating any intrinsic volume analysis. This does not occur with BTC, as it is open twenty-four-seven. At major highs and lows, the market is typically anemic. Most traders are not active at terminal discretes (peaks and troughs) because of levels of fear. Volume allows us confidence in time and price symmetry market inflection points, if we observe low volume at a foretold range of values. We can rationalize that an absolute discrete is usually only discovered and anticipated by very few traders. As the general market realizes it, a herd mentality will push the market in the direction favorable to defending it. Volume is also useful for swing trading, as chances for swing’s validity increases if an increase in volume is seen on and after the swing’s activation. Volume is steadily decreasing. Lows and highs are reached when volume is lower.
Therefore, due to the relatively high volume on the 12th of March, we can safely determine that a low for BTC was not reached.
VIX – Volatility Index, this technical indicator indicates level of fear by the amount of options-based “insurance” in portfolios. A low VIX environment, less than 20 for the S&P index, indicates a stable market with a possible uptrend. A high VIX, over 20, indicates a possible downtrend. VIX is essentially useless for BTC as BTC-based options do not exist. It allows us to predict the market low for $SPY, which will have an indirect impact on BTC in the short term, likely leading to the yearly low. However, it is equally important to see how VIX is changing over time, if it is decreasing or increasing, as that indicates increasing or decreasing fear. Low volatility allows high leverage without risk or rest. Occasionally, markets do rise with high VIX.
As VIX is unusually high, in the forties, we can be confident that a downtrend for the S&P 500 is imminent.
RSI (Relative Strength Index): The most important technical indicator, useful for determining highs and lows when time symmetry is not availing itself. Sometimes analysis of RSI can conflict in different time frames, easiest way to use it is when it is at extremes – either under 30 or over 70. Extremes can be used for filtering highs or lows based on time-and-price window calculations. Highly instructive as to major corrective clues and indicative of continued directional movement. Must determine if longer-term RSI values find support at same values as before. It is currently at 73.56.
Secondly, RSI may be used as a high or low filter, to observe the level that short-term RSI reaches in counter-trend corrections. Repetitions based on market movements based on RSI determine how long a trade should be held onto. Once a short term RSI reaches an extreme and stay there, the other RSI’s should gradually reach the same extremes. Once all RSI’s are at extreme highs, a trend confirmation should occur and RSI’s should drop to their midpoint.
Trend Definition Analysis of Bitcoin
Trend definition is highly powerful, cannot be understated. Knowledge of trend logic is enough to be a profitable trader, yet defining a trend is an arduous process. Multiple trends coexist across multiple time frames and across multiple market sectors. Like time structure, it makes the underlying price of the instrument irrelevant. Trend definitions cannot determine the validity of newly formed discretes. Trend becomes apparent when trades based in counter-trend inflection points continue to fail. Downtrends are defined as an instrument making lower lows and lower highs that are recurrent, additive, qualified swing setups. Downtrends for all instruments are similar, except forex. They are fast and complete much quicker than uptrends. An average downtrend is 18 months, something which we will return to. An uptrend inception occurs when an instrument reaches a point where it fails to make a new low, then that low will be tested. After that, the instrument will either have a deep range retracement or it may take out the low slightly, resulting in a double-bottom. A swing must eventually form. A simple way to roughly determine trend is to attempt to draw a line from three tops going upwards (uptrend) or a line from three bottoms going downwards (downtrend). It is not possible to correctly draw a downtrend line on the BTC chart, but it is possible to correctly draw an uptrend – indicating that the overall trend is downwards. The only mitigating factor is the impending stock market crash.
Time Symmetry Analysis of Bitcoin
Time is the movement from the past through the present into the future. It is a measurement in quantified intervals. In many ways, our perception of it is a human construct. It is more powerful than price as time may be utilized for a trade regardless of the market inflection point’s price. Were it possible to perfectly understand time, price would be totally irrelevant due to the predictive certainty time affords. Time structure is easier to learn than price, but much more difficult to apply with any accuracy. It is the hardest aspect of trading to learn, but also the most rewarding. Humans do not have the ability to recognize every time window, however the ability to define market inflection points in terms of time is the single most powerful trading edge. Regardless, price should not be abandoned for time alone. Time structure analysis It is inherently flawed, as such the markets have a fail-safe, which is Price Structure. Even though Time is much more powerful, Price Structure should never be completely ignored. Time is the qualifier for Price and vice versa. Time can fail by tricking traders into counter-trend trading. Time is a predestined trade quantifier, a filter to slow trades down, as it allows a trader to specifically focus on specific time windows and rest at others. It allows for quantitative measurements to reach deterministic values and is the primary qualifier for trends. Time structure should be utilized before price structure, and it is the primary trade criterion which requires support from price. We can see price structure on a chart, as areas of mathematical support or resistance, but we cannot see time structure. Time may be used to tell us an exact point in the future where the market will inflect, after Price Theory has been fulfilled. In the present, price objectives based on price theory added to possible future times for market inflection points give us the exact time of market inflection points and price. Time Structure is repetitions of time or inherent cycles of time, occurring in a methodical way to provide time windows which may be utilized for inflection points. They are not easily recognized and not easily defined by a price chart as measuring and observing time is very exact. Time structure is not a science, yet it does require precise measurements. Nothing is certain or definite. The critical question must be if a particular approach to time structure is currently lucrative or not. We will measure it in intervals of 180 bars. Our goal is to determine time windows, when the market will react and when we should pay the most attention. By using time repetitions, the fact that market inflection points occurred at some point in the past and should, therefore, reoccur at some point in the future, we should obtain confidence as to when SPY will reach a market inflection point. Time repetitions are essentially the market’s memory. However, simply measuring the time between two points then trying to extrapolate into the future does not work. Measuring time is not the same as defining time repetitions. We will evaluate past sessions for market inflection points, whether discretes, qualified swings, or intra-range. Then records the times that the market has made highs or lows in a comparable time period to the future one seeks to trade in. What follows is a time Histogram – A grouping of times which appear close together, then segregated based on that closeness. Time is aligned into combined histogram of repetitions and cycles, however cycles are irrelevant on a daily basis. If trading on an hourly basis, do not use hours.
Daily Lows Mode for those Months: 1, 1, 2, 4, 12, 17, 18, 24, 25, 28, 29, 30
Hourly Lows Mode for those Months (Military time): 0100, 0200, 0200, 0400, 0700, 0700, 0800, 1200, 1200, 1700, 2000, 2200
Minute Lows Mode for those Months: 00, 00, 00, 00, 00, 00, 09, 09, 59, 59, 59, 59
Day of the Week Lows (last twenty-six weeks):
Weighted Times are repetitions which appears multiple times within the same list, observed and accentuated once divided into relevant sections of the histogram. They are important in the presently defined trading time period and are similar to a mathematical mode with respect to a series. Phased times are essentially periodical patterns in histograms, though they do not guarantee inflection points Evaluating the yearly lows, we see that BTC tends to have its lows primarily at the beginning of every year, with a possibility of it being at the end of the year. Following the same methodology, we get the middle of the month as the likeliest day. However, evaluating the monthly lows for the past year, the beginning and end of the month are more likely for lows. Therefore, we have two primary dates from our histogram. 1/1/21, 1/15/21, and 1/29/21 2:00am, 8:00am, 12:00pm, or 10:00pm In fact, the high for this year was February the 14th, only thirty days off from our histogram calculations. The 8.6-Year Armstrong-Princeton Global Economic Confidence model states that 2.15 year intervals occur between corrections, relevant highs and lows. 2.15 years from the all-time peak discrete is February 9, 2020 – a reasonably accurate depiction of the low for this year (which was on 3/12/20). (Taking only the Armstrong model into account, the next high should be Saturday, April 23, 2022). Therefore, the Armstrong model indicates that we have actually bottomed out for the year! Bear markets cannot exist in perpetuity whereas bull markets can. Bear markets will eventually have price objectives of zero, whereas bull markets can increase to infinity. It can occur for individual market instruments, but not markets as a whole. Since bull markets are defined by low volatility, they also last longer. Once a bull market is indicated, the trader can remain in a long position until a new high is reached, then switch to shorts. The average bear market is eighteen months long, giving us a date of August 19th, 2021 for the end of this bear market – roughly speaking. They cannot be shorter than fifteen months for a central-bank controlled market, which does not apply to Bitcoin. (Otherwise, it would continue until Sunday, September 12, 2021.) However, we should expect Bitcoin to experience its’ exponential growth after the stock market re-enters a bull market. Terry Laundy’s T-Theory implemented by measuring the time of an indicator from peak to trough, then using that to define a future time window. It is similar to an head-and-shoulders pattern in that it is the process of forming the right side from a synthetic technical indicator. If the indicator is making continued lows, then time is recalculated for defining the right side of the T. The date of the market inflection point may be a price or indicator inflection date, so it is not always exactly useful. It is better to make us aware of possible market inflection points, clustered with other data. It gives us an RSI low of May, 9th 2020. The Bradley Cycle is coupled with volatility allows start dates for campaigns or put options as insurance in portfolios for stocks. However, it is also useful for predicting market moves instead of terminal dates for discretes. Using dates which correspond to discretes, we can see how those dates correspond with changes in VIX. Therefore, our timeline looks like:
2/14/20 – yearly high ($10372 USD)
3/12/20 – yearly low thus far ($3858 USD)
5/9/20 – T-Theory true yearly low (BTC between 4863 and 3569)
Is there any decent comparison of mining rigs through bitcoin's history?
I remember back when I first heard about Bitcoin around the first bubble, and I had a friend who ordered miners from some kickstarter that never showed up. Fun times. I'm curious about how the arms race has progressed and I'm looking for some kind of historic comparison of how much hashrate you could buy for ~$500 at various points in BTC's history, including back when it was graphics cards and CPUs. Any good place for that info?
The One Thing EVERYONE Must Know About the Dev Funding Plan: IT'S COMPLETELY FREE.
sigh I get so tired of having to stop working to put out a post explaining issues. If anyone else wants to join in I could use help. (actually I've seen Jonald F. do this before too, so thanks JF!) Things are bad when even developers don't understand what's going on. So I'll try to clearly explain an important point on the Dev Funding Plan (DFP from now on) for the community: it's completely free. Yet we still get panicked posts saying Please Save Us from the TAX!!! Somebody Help! You may be for or against the DFP, but either way please at least understand what you're forming an opinion on. Let's start from the beginning. We know Bitcoin works on blocks and block coin rewards. The block reward, which started at 50 coins per block, and cuts in half approximately every 4 years, serves two purposes: it's a fair way to bring coins into circulation, but more importantly it provides security for the network. For simplicity, please think of "security" as being measured in power bars. When the network first started, with just Satoshi and Hal Finney, there was 1 power bar. This power bar was made up of the electricity their combined computer hardware used to find blocks. They were the first miners. Bitcoin uses a difficulty level to adjust how hard or easy it is to find blocks. This level is important for a key reason: we want the inflation rate of coins (how fast they come into circulation) to stay about the same, regardless how many miners (computing power) suddenly comes online. If the difficulty is set at super easy, but suddenly a super computer comes online that computer can gobble up thousands of coins in minutes if not seconds, creating massive rapid inflation. So the first thing to understand is that due to the Difficulty Level Adjustment the rate of coins coming into circulation will always stay about the same, regardless how many miners join or leave the network. Getting back to power bars. So the point of Bitcoin is there is no center, no fixed authority. The problem is we still need a decision made about which chain is valid. This is where proof-of-work comes in. Satoshi's fairly brilliant solution to a consensus decision, with no leader, was to simply look for the longest chain (technically the chain with most hashing work). The reasoning was: as there are far more ordinary people than there are governments and dictators a Bitcoin supported by the all the world's people should always be able to muster more hashrate than even rich governments. So Bitcoin began and people saw the brilliance: even with a weak power bar level of 1 (a couple computers), Bitcoin was safe from 51% attacks and attacking govs competing for control of the chain because a super low hashrate meant Bitcoin wasn't popular and govs wouldn't bother paying attention. By the time Bitcoin was big enough for govs to worry about attacking it should also have so many participants the power bar level would be far higher, providing strong defense. Let's say the ideal power bar level is 50,000. At this level no government on earth has enough resources to beat the grassroots network. We hear people brag about how much security BTC has. However, the marketcap for all of BTC is about $160B. Countries like the U.S. and China have GDP measured in many trillions; a trillion is 1,000 billion. Does 160B really seem untouchable? For numeric comparison the main U.S. federal food assistance program cost the government $70B in 2016, representing about 2% of the budget. So the entirety of the BTC market cap is about twice the size of one welfare program, representing 2% of the overall budget. Where should we place the current security power bars if we want guaranteed safety from a determined U.S. gov? If 50,000 is guaranteed safe we're far from it. I'd say BTC is more like 5,000. That's still pretty decent. Of course, BCH split from BTC... and didn't carry over all the miners and accompanying security. That's not an immediate concern because if BTC isn't on government's radar yet BCH sure isn't. However, that doesn't mean BCH doesn't need security from hostile forces. It's still a valuable network and needs defenses. Where would we put power bars for BCH? If BTC is 5,000 and BCH only has 3% of that hashrate then BCH has just 150. That's it. How the Developer Funding Plan Works Back to the DFP. What this says is as a community we agree to break off a piece of the block reward and instead of giving 100% to miners we give a small percent to developers. If each block is 10 coins and the price is $300 then winning a block means winning $3,000. Of course that's not all profit because miners have electricity and other expenses to pay before calculating profit. So if we reduce the portion of the miner reward by 10% so they get just 9 coins per block yet the price stays the same what happens? It means miners receive $2,700 for the same effort. We've just made it more expensive to mine BCH from the point of view of miners. What would any miner then rationally do? Seek profitability elsewhere if available. Suddenly BTC SHA256 hashing looks slightly more attractive so they'll go there. Hashrate leaves BCH and goes to BTC, but the key important point is BOTH chains have a difficulty adjustment algorithm which adjusts to account for rising or lowering miners overall, which keeps the coin inflation rate steady. This means BTC total hashrate rises (more miners compete for BTC) and its Difficulty Level rises accordingly, so the same rate of BTC pumps out; on BCH total hashrate falls (less miners compete for BCH) and its Difficulty falls, so the same rate of BCH pumps out. Inflation remains about the same on both coins so the price of both coins doesn't change any, beyond what it normally does based on news/events etc. So what difference is there? The difference is total network security. Hashrate totals have changed. BTC gains more miner securing hashrate while BCH loses it. So BTC goes from 5,000 to say 5,100 power bars. BCH goes from about 150 to 140. Does any of that matter in the grand scheme of things? Not in the slightest. Part of the reason is due to our emergency circumstances with BCH we had to rework our security model. Our primary defense is an idea I came up with, which BitcoinABC implemented, saying it's not sheer hashpower that dictates what chain we follow. We won't replace a chain we're working on if a new one suddenly appears if it means changing more than 10 blocks deep of history. This prevents all the threatening hashrate hanging over our heads from mining a secret chain and creating havoc unleashing it causing 10+ confimed txs to be undone, while exchanges, gambling sites etc. have long since paid out real world money. Switching $6M worth of block rewards from mining to devs just means we lose a bit of hashrate security, while we gain those funds for development. Nothing more. Nobody holding BCH pays in the form of inflation or any other way. It costs literally NOTHING BECAUSE The block reward is ALREADY ALLOCATED. It will EITHER go 100% to mining security if we do nothing, or go to both miners and devs if the plan is put into effect. Hopefully this helps. :) TL;DR: we switch security which we don't really need, for developer funding which we do.
[[ 155PH/s ]] [[ 2.4% ]] Bitcoin Cash hashrate update @ 3:14 PM UTC Aug 1, 2017
Figures reported as of 8:12 PM UTC Aug 1, 2017
Bitcoin Cash currently has 245 PH/s ( 3.8 %)
(Congrats! We have mined 4 blocks so far on the cash chain! We are free! Difficulty will start to lower in 2 more blocks)
Bitcoin.com: 29 PH/s ViaBTC: 216 PH/s ----------------------------------------- TOTAL BITCOIN CASH HASHRATE: 245 PH/s TOTAL BITCOIN NETWORK HASHRATE: 6414 PH/s (around time of fork) BITCOIN CASH PERCENTAGE: 3.9 %
These figures were drawn from: https://pool.viabtc.com/ https://console.pool.bitcoin.com/ Note: There are also likely solo miners that we are unaware of (there is no way to track their hashrate). Are there any other pools that we can add to the figure? Please post them in comments if you know of any.
I will update this post every 1-2 hours.
Record: 3:14 PM UTC Aug 1, 2017: 155 PH/s (2.4%) 3:26 PM UTC Aug 1, 2017: 162 PH/s (2.5%) 4:43 PM UTC Aug 1, 2017: 212 PH/s (3.3%) 7:09 PM UTC Aug 1, 2017: 247 PH/s (3.9 %) 8:12 PM UTC Aug 1, 2017: 245 PH/s (3.8 %)
Many people may feel quite confused about their low profit now. Maybe you forget to think about the small details when you are mining. Small little details will make big difference in your final income. Now, i want to share you the 8 skills to improve your benefits. 1, Get a cheaper power Everyone knows the power is the most charge in mining, if we can find a cheaper electricity, it will be good. So, how to get a cheaper electricity? 55% of the mining is in China, and 40% of the mining is in Sichuan China. Why? Because there are many hydroelectric power station in there. So, you can find a place near the station and get a cheaper electricity from them. If you can find free electricity, it is the best anyway 2, Choose low w/t machine As you know, low comsuption machine is very popular those days, like S17 pro 53t, T17 42t. They are 7nm technical, the w/t is low and it can even overclock, it maybe a good choice. Also, we need to consider the price of machine. Cheap price machine means fast ROI, But low W/T machine has a bright future. 3, Buy miner when BTC begin to raise after long drop When BTC price keep falling, of course the machine will be cheaper and cheaper. When the BTC price begin to raise, we can buy miner at that time, because the price is the cheapset and you can earn money back soon. Normally at that time, the good machine will be sold out quickly, when the market feedback that those machine are good, you may be late to get the chance. So, make your plan for purchasing before, when price down, get them. 4, Do not forget BCH, BSV, ZEN coin Do remember SHA-256 Algorithm can mining BCH and BSV as well. Sometimes those coin may get even a better profits than BTC. Some miner has auto setting for BTC, but you can choose BSV and BCH mining if you set it, 5, Notice the half reward period information Because the half reward time is coming in 2020, there will be a chance or a risk for it. Many low hashrate machine may be out of the style and high hashrate will be more competitive. Low your risk and not to buy those cheap machine now 6, Choose a good future crypto currency There are many coins in this field now, we need to analyse and find a better direction for mining. Like Z11, many people use it for ZEN mining nowadays, and their benefits is top now. Also, people buy many S17, it can earn money back before next year half reward time. And they believe the BTC price will increase creazily as last two times. 7, Make plan for your selling of coin or machine As you know, the price of the BTC changes everytime, we can mining the BTC first and keep it in hand, do not sell it every day. It is very stupid. Just sell it when price high, you do not need to take any risk if you do not buy BTC directy. We do not need to care about the low price situation, we only need to wait. When chance come, get it. Same for machine 8. Don't be fooled by the mining calculator Many sites calculate mining profits based on hardware and electricity prices. If you've never mined before, you might be happy to see the numbers provided by these websites and calculators and think, "I'll make a fortune!" However, these websites don't tell you: in addition to the cost of electricity, there may be other current costs, such as maintenance, cooling, rent, labor, etc. Generally, the hash rate and power consumption of the device are slightly different from what the factory says. This difference is more common in unpopular brands. You can better understand the actual hash rate and the actual power consumption by watching the miner test video on YouTube. In addition, depending on the distance from the meter to the device and the type of cable used, the power loss from the meter to the device can be as high as 200 watts. In addition to the cost of mining machines, some initial costs are required to prepare the infrastructure, such as cooling and venting, cabling and distribution, shelves, network and monitoring equipment, safety measures, etc. The network difficulty is constantly changing and increasing at a significant speed, which directly affects the mining revenue. You can check the bitcoin network difficulty chart to see its growth rate, but your miner will not always be 100% active. Due to maintenance, network problems, ore pool problems, power problems and many other problems, the miner may be offline for several hours. I suggest that you consider setting the normal operation time of the miner to less than 97% when calculating. We have rich mining experience in professional ore pools, and the normal operation time of these mining machines will not exceed 97-98%. Thats all, hope those information will help you become a good mining investor.
Here is a spreadsheet I made for difficulty over the last year (01/16/17 - 01/15/18). Basically it breaks down to an average difficulty increase of 15.1% per month (181.21% total increase), so make sure you're counting on that average when investing in (Bitcoin) cloud mining. It's also likely to continue to rise over the next year as it must keep pace with the network hashrate. Google Sheets
Background: I have been looking into the process for a little over a month now, started out just going to buy BTC decided that wasn't for me so I wanted to mine. I don't want to play the lottery so not really for me, so I have chose to give cloud mining a try. I am a father of 4 in the military and haven't made the best of choices as far as planning for the future of myself let alone my family. I see this as a good starting point. I plan to invest what I would typically spend on cokes or the silly extra things I honestly don't need, I know it will be a very very long road starting out with a small initian pirchase and another random amount here and there as finances allow. Questions: 1.) I am curious as to which wallet would be the most secure in my situation, I like the ability to look and check from a computer and a phone depending on where I am. I am looking at Electrum as a possibility but if others could provide me with suggestions and why they chose it over another that would be of great benefit, I plan to pass along what i learn to others in my situation. 2.) What calculator is typically the most accurate to your actual payouts? Being as I haven't started I can't yet compare earnings vs a calculator to look at projections vs the one inside of hashflare. It is my understanding that cryptocompare doesn't take into account difficulty chances like say mycryptobuddy. 3.) In your opinion do you think it wise to try to recover your initial investment and pull that back out asap and just play around with the residual or not. 4.) What is a solid first investment, with being a single family income, Christmas and 4 kids I don't have much extra money. Is it worth starting out with say $50? Save and do $100? 5.) How do you spread the word to others, I know there is an affiliate program with hashflare, without them instantly thinking you're out to scam them? I will be honest the referal numbers and everything inside of a review scared me away (that and just not having any money to invest). I am not looking to get rich quick I just want to get started in hopefully providing a better future for my family and friends, those inside and outside of the ranks. I look forward to this experience and hearing input from this community.
How to calculate the total network hashrate of Zcash?
Hi guys, For my thesis, I'm investigating the energy use of different cryptocurrencies. I'm trying to come up with a systematic method to calculate the total network hashrate, but I'm stuck on the Equihash algorithm, used by Zcash. I found a blog post explaining the Equihash algorithm, where it is said that the average number of times to run the algorithm is 2^d divided by the number of solutions. As the number of solutions in Zcash and Bitcoin Gold is restricted to 2, this equals 2^(d-1). However, Zcash's difficulty is currently 52.130*10^6, which of course results in a way too large number. What does this difficulty represent, and how can we calculate the total network hashrate from this?
A better anti-reorg algorithm using first-seen times to punish secret/dishonest mining
Bitcoin currently allows a malicious miner with at least 51% of the network hashrate to arbitrarily rewrite blockchain history. This means that transactions are reversible if they belong to a miner with a hashrate majority, and such transactions are subject to double-spend attempts. Bitcoin SV's miners have repeatedly threatened to perform this attack against exchanges using BCH by mining a secret, hidden chain which they only publish after they have withdrawn funds in a different currency from the exchange. It would be nice if we could prevent these secret mining re-org attacks. Yesterday, I came up with a new algorithm for making secret re-org attacks very expensive and difficult to pull off. This new algorithm is designed to avoid the permanent chainsplit vulnerabilities of ABC 0.18.5 while being more effective at punishing malicious behavior. The key to the new algorithm is to punish exactly the behavior that indicates malice. First, publishing a block after another block at the same height has arrived on the network suggests malice or poor performance, and the likelihood of malice increases as the delay increases. A good algorithm would penalize blocks in proportion to how much later they were published after the competing block. Second, building upon a block that was intentionally delayed is also a sign of malice. Therefore, a good algorithm would discount the work done by blocks based not only on their own delays, but the delays that were seen earlier in that chain as well. Since the actions at the start of the fork are more culpable (as they generate the split), we want to weight those blocks more heavily than later blocks. I wrote up an algorithm that implements these features. When comparing two chains, you look at the PoW done since the fork block, and divide that PoW by a penalty score. The penalty score for each chain is calculated as the sum of the penalty scores for each block. Each block's penalty score is equal to the apparent time delay of that block relative to its sibling or cousin, divided by 120 seconds, and further divided by the square of that block's height from the fork. This algorithm has some desirable properties:
It provides smooth performance. There are no corners or sharp changes in its incentive structure or penalty curve.
It converges over very long time scales. Eventually, if one chain has more hashrate than the other and that is sustained indefinitely, the chain with the most hashrate will win by causing the chain penalty score for the slower (less-PoW) chain to grow.
The long-term convergence means that variation in observed times early in the fork will not cause permanent chainsplits.
Long-term convergence means that nodes can follow the standard most-PoW rule during initial block download and get the same results unless an attack is underway, in which case the node will only temporarily disagree.
Over intermediate time scales (e.g. hours to weeks), the penalty given to secret-mining deep-reorg chains is very large and difficult to overcome even with a significant hashrate advantage. The penalty increases the longer the attack chain is kept secret. This makes attack attempts ineffective unless they are published within about 20 minutes of the attack starting.
Single-block orphan race behavior is identical to existing behavior unless one of the blocks has a delay of at least 120 seconds, in which case that chain would require a total of 3 blocks to win (or more) instead of just 2.
As the algorithm strongly punishes hidden chains, finalization becomes much safer as long as you prevent finalization from happening while there are known competitive alternate chains. However, this algorithm is still effective without finalization.
I wrote up this algorithm into a Python sim yesterday and have been playing around with it since. It seems to perform quite well. For example, if the attacker has 1.5x as much hashrate as the defenders (who had 100% of the hashrate before the fork), mine in secret for 20 minutes before publishing, and if finalization is enabled after 10 blocks when there's at least a 2x score advantage, then the attacker gets an orphan rate of 49.3% on their blocks and is only able to cause a >= 10 block reorg in 5.2% of cases, and none of those happen blindly, as the opposing chain shows up when most transactions have about 2 confirmations. If the attacker waits 1 hour before publishing, the attack is even less effective: 94% of their blocks are orphaned, 95.6% of their attempts fail, 94.3% of the attacks end with defenders successfully finalizing, and only 0.6% of attack attempts result in a >= 10 block reorg. The code for my algorithm and simulator can be found on my antiReorgSim Github repository. If you guys have time, I'd appreciate some review and feedback. To run it:
git clone https://github.com/jtoomim/antiReorgSim.git cd antiReorgSim python reorgsim.py # use pypy if you have it, as it's 30x faster
Thanks! Special thanks to Jonald Fyookball and Mark Lundeberg for reviewing early versions of the code and the ideas. I believe Jonald is working on a Medium post based on some of these concepts. Keep an eye out for it. Edit: I'm working on an interactive HTML visualization using Dash/Python! Here's a screenshot from a preliminary version in which convergence (or attacker victory, if you prefer) happens after 88.4 hours. In this scenario, the attacker wins because of the rule in Note 5. Edit 2: An alpha website version of the simulator is up! The code is all server-side for the simulation, so it might get overloaded if too many people hit it at the same time, but it might be fine. Feel free to play around with it! Note 1: This time delay is calculated by finding the best competing chain's last block with less work than this one and the first block with more work than this one and interpolating the time-first-seen between the two. The time at which the block was fully downloaded and verified is used as time-first-seen, not the time at which the header was received nor the block header's timestamp. Note 2: An empirical constant, intended to be similar to worst-case block propagation times. Note 3: A semi-empirical constant; this balances the effect of early blocks against late blocks. The motivation for squaring is that late blocks gain an advantage for two multiplicative reasons: First, there are more late blocks than early blocks. Second, the time deltas for late blocks are larger. Both of these factors are linear versus time, so canceling them out can be done by dividing by height squared. This way, the first block has about as much weight as the next 4 blocks; the first two blocks have as much weight as the next 9 blocks; and the first (n) blocks have about as much weight as the next (n+1)2 blocks. Any early advantage can be overcome eventually by a hashrate majority, so over very long time scales (e.g. hours to weeks), this rule is equivalent to the simple Satoshi most-PoW rule, as long as the hashrate on each chain is constant. However, over intermediate time scales, the advantage to the first seen blocks is large enough that the hashrate will likely not remain constant, and hashrate will likely switch over to whichever chain has the best score and looks the most honest. Note 4: The calculation doesn't actually use height, as that would be vulnerable to DAA manipulation. Instead, the calculation uses pseudoheight, which uses the PoW done and the fork block's difficulty to calculate what the height would be if all blocks had the fork block's difficulty. Note 5: If one chain has less PoW than the other, the shorter chain's penalty is calculated as if enough blocks had been mined at the last minute to make them equal in PoW, but these fictional blocks do not contribute to the actual PoW of that chain.
Time to discuss the elephant in the room. Nicehash 51% Attacks.
While I've argued for ProgPoW because I'm not a fan of ASIC manufactures because of their malicious business practices, I think we all know the real problem for PoW security, Hashrate Rental sites. Let's go through a short-list of coins that are listed on Nicehash, where hashpower could be bought and then executed a 51% attack. Monacoin 51% BitcoinGold 51% EthereumClassic 51% Vertcoin 51% ZenCash(Now Horizen) 51% BitcoinPrivate 51% (Ethical Hack) Nicehash has been the #1 to go to "sell" hashpower for whatever coin they support for BTC and other rental services such as miningrigrental. While we cannot prove that this attacks were used by buying hashpower on nicehash, a ethical hacker Geocold lived streamed how easy it was to attack PoW coin BTCP. "using a couple of hundred dollars’ worth of rented hashpower he’d purchased from Nicehash with BTC" (bitcoin.com). We can assume then that other 51% attacks all follow this method. Step 1. Buy more Hashpower than the current network using rental services Step 2. moves coins on the true network to other addresses, makes deposits, then withdraws them to a safe addresses Step 3. broadcast the untruthful chain to the network Step 4. this reverts the truthful network. Step 5. Profit.
Shockingly, several crypto-currencies not only were cheap to attack but also had plenty of hash rate for sale on NiceHash with which such an attack could take place. When 51% attacks were considered in the past, most calculations included the cost of hardware, electricity, and maintenance. But this new “rent-a-attack” method is proving dangerous for smaller networks. (ccn.com)
This is what happened to ETC recently. Few people who were using nicehash services commented that they noticed a pay-bump mining ETH-HASH.
One PoW altcoin team has set up a script to constantly monitor their hashrate. In the event of a spike of over 10%, they will be automatically notified. Should the newly added hashrate emanate from an unknown pool, or be in danger of tipping an existing pool over 50%, they have a large quantity BTC on standby with Nicehash ready to purchase their own firepower to counter the attack (bitcoin.com)
Again it shows the only way that people counter this is to over-bid/buy more hashrate. While I understand PoS doesn't suffer from these type of attacks. However I find it unreasonable to say PoW is flawed because 51% attacks. Hashrental services we not envisioned by Satoshi's PoW. Any actual mining actors not using hash rentals would need a sizable amount of resources to perform a 51% and double-spend even on small cap coins. Nicehash takes your money and doesn't care. The elephant Crypto needs to deal with it shutting off nicehash and rental services. After the nicehash hack I know I saw a sizable increase in profits because difficulty dropped on so many coins. IMHO Nicehash needs to turn-off purchasing hashrate and instead turn to "auto-covert" where they mine the coin that's profitable that day and turn into bitcoin for the user. We wouldn't have the chance of 51% attacks.
Hello All, This post is meant to address the elephant in the room, and the #1 criticism that IOTA gets which is the existence of the Coordinator node.
What is the Coordinator
The Coordinator or, COO for short, is a special piece of software that is operated by the IOTA Foundation. This software's function is to drop "milestone" transactions onto the Tangle that help in ordering of Transactions. As this wonderful post on reddit highlights (https://www.reddit.com/Iota/comments/7c3qu8/coordinator_explained/)
When you want to know if a transaction is verified, you find the newest Milestone and you see if it indirectly verifies your transaction (i.e it verifies your transaction, or if verifies a transaction that verifies your transaction, or if it verifies a transaction that verifies a transaction that verifies your transaction, etc). The reason that the Milestones exist is because if you just picked any random transaction, there's the possibility that the node you're connected to is malicious and is trying to trick you into verifying its transactions. The people who operate nodes can't fake the signatures on Milestones, so you know you can trust the Milestones to be legit.
Why is the COO a Problem?
The COO protects the network, that is great right? No, it is not. The coordinator represents a centralized entity that draws the ire of the concurrency community in general is the reason behind a lot of FUD.
When is the COO Expected to be Removed?
Here is where things get dicey. If you ask the IOTA Foundation, the last official response I heard was
We are running super computer simulations with the University of St. Peteresburg to determine when that could be a possibility.
This answer didn't satisfy me, so I've spent the last few weeks thinking about the problem and think I can explain the challenges that the IOTA Foundation are up against, what they expect to model with the super computer simulations, and what ultimately what my intuition (backed up by some back of the napkin mathematics) tells me that outcomes will be.
IOTA Hashrate Explained
In order to understand the bounds of the problem, we first need to understand what our measuring stick is. Our measuring stick provides measurements with respect to hashed per second. A hash, is a mathematical operation that blockchain (and DAG) based applications require before accepting your transaction. This is generally thought of as an anti-spam measure used to protect a blockchain network. IOTA and Bitcoin share some things in common, and one of those things is that they both require Proof of Work in order to interact with the blockchain. In IOTA, a single hash is completed for each Transaction that you submit. You complete this PoW at the time of submitting your Transaction, and you never revisit it again. In Bitcoin, hashes are guessed at by millions of computers (miners) competing to be the first person to find solve the correct hash, and ultimately mint a new block. Because of the competitive nature of the bitcoin mining mechanism, the bitcoin hashrate is a sustained hashrate, while the IOTA hashrate is "bursty" going through peaks and valleys as new transactions are submitted. Essentially, IOTA performance is a function of the current throughput of the network. While, bitcoin's performance is a delicate balance between all collective miners, the hashing difficulty with the goal of pegging the block time to 10 minutes. With all that said, I hope it is clear that we can come to the following conclusion. The amount of CPU time required to compute 1 Bitcoin hash is much much greater then the amount of CPU time required to compute 1 IOTA hash. T(BtcHash) >> T(IotaHash) After all, low powered IOT devices are supposed to be able to execute the IOTA hashing function in order to submit their own transactions.
Measuring Work to be Proven
A "hash" has be looked at as an amount of work that needs to be completed. If you are solving a bitcoin hash, it will take a lot more work to solve then an IOTA hash. When we want to measure IOTA, we usually look at "Transactions Per Second". Since each Transaction requires a single Hash to be completed, we can translate this measurement into "Hashes Per Second" that the entire network supports. IOTA has seen Transactions Per Second on the order of magnitude of <100. That means, that at current adoption levels the IOTA network is supported and secured by 100 IOTA hashes per second (on a very good day). Bitcoin hashes are much more difficult to solve. The bitcoin network is secured by 1 Bitcoin hash every 10 minutes (which adjust's it's difficult over time to remain pegged at 10 minutes). (More details on bitcoin mining: https://www.coindesk.com/information/how-bitcoin-mining-works/)
Understanding how IOTA would be hacked without the COO
Without the COOs protection, IOTA would be a juicy target destroy. With only 100 IOTA hashes per second securing the network, that means that an individual would only need to maintain a sustained 34 hashes per second in order to completely take over the network.
How many of my personal gaming PCs would it take to 34% attack IOTA?
Personally, my relatively moderate gaming PC takes about 60 seconds to solve IOTA Proof of Work before my transaction will be submitted to the Tangle. This is not a beastly machine, nor does it utilize specialized hardware to solve my Proof of Work. This gaming PC cost about $1000 to build, and provides me .0166 hashes per second. **Using this figure, we can derive that consumer electronics provide hashing efficiency of roughly $60,000 USD / Hash / Second ($60k per hash per second) on the IOTA network. Given that the Tx/Second of IOTA is around 100 on a good day, and it requires $60,000 USD to acquire 1Hash/Second of computing power we would need 34 * $60,000 to attack the IOTA network. The total amount of money required to 34% the IOTA project is $2,040,00 This is a very small number. Not only that, but the hash rate required to conduct such an attack already exists, and it is likely that this attack has already been attempted. The simple truth is, that due to the economic incentive of mining the hash rate required to attack IOTA is already centralized, and are foaming at the mouth to attack IOTA. This is why the Coordinator exists, and why it will not be going anywhere anytime soon.
What will it take to Remove the COO?
The most important thing that needs to occur to remove the COO, is that the native measurement of transactions per second (which ultimately also measures the hashes per second) need to go drastically up in orders of magnitude. If the IOTA transaction volume were to increase to 1000 transactions per second, then it would require 340 transactions per second from a malicious actor to compromise the network. In order to complete 340 transactions per second, the attacker would need now need the economic power of 340 * $60,000 to 34% attack the IOTA network. In this hypothetical scenario, the cost of attacking the IOTA network is $20,400,000. This number is still pretty small, but at least you can see the pattern. IOTA will likely need to hit many-thousand transactions per second before it can be considered secure.
How does JINN play into this
What we have to keep in mind here, is that IOTA has an ace up their sleeve, and that Ace is JINN Labs and the ternary processor that they are working on. Ultimately, JINN is the end-game for the IOTA project that will make the removal of the COO a reality. In order to understand what JINN is, we need to understand a little bit about computer architecture and the nature of computational instruction in general. A "processor" is a piece of hardware that performs micro calculations. These micro calculations are usually very simple, such as adding two numbers, subtracting two numbers, incrementing, decrementing, and the like. The operation that is completed (addition, subtraction) is called the opcode while the numbers being operated on are called the operands. Traditional processors, like the ones you find in my "regular gaming PC" are binary processors where both the opcode and operands are expected to be binary numbers (or a collection of 0s and 1s). The JINN processor, provides the same functionality, mainly a hardware implementation of micro instructions. However, it expects the opcodes and operands to be ternary numbers (or a collection of 0s, 1s, and 2s). I won't get into the computational data density of base 2 vs. base 3 processors, nor will get I get into the energy efficiency of those processors. What I will be getting into however, is how certain tasks are simpler to solve in certain number systems. Depending on what operations are being executed upon the operands, performing the calculation in a different base will actually reduce the amount of steps required, and thus the execution time of the calculation. For an example, see how base 12 has been argued to be superior to base 10 (https://io9.gizmodo.com/5977095/why-we-should-switch-to-a-base-12-counting-system) I want to be clear here. I am not saying that any 1 number system is superior to any other number system for all types of operations. I am simply saying, that there exist certain types of calculations that are easier to perform in base 2, then they are performed in base 10. Likewise, there are calculations that are vastly simpler in base 3 then they are in base 2. The IOTA POW, and the algorithms required to solve for it is one of these algorithms. The IOTA PoW was designed to be ternary in nature, and I suggest that this is the reason right here. The data density and electricity savings that JINN provides are great, but the real design decision that has led to base 3 has been that they can now manufacture hardware that is superior at solving their own PoW calculations.
Understanding Binary Emulation vs. Native Processing
Binary emulation, is when a binary processor is asked to perform ternary operations. A binary processor is completely able to solve ternary hashes, but in order to do so it will need to emulate the ternary micro instructions at a higher level in the application stack from away from the hardware. If you had access to a base 3 processor, and needed perform a base 3 addition operation you could easily ask your processor to natively perform that calculation. If all you have access to, is a base 2 processor, you would need to emulate a base 3 number system in software. This would ultimately result in a higher number of instructions passing through your processor, more electricity being utilized, more time to complete.
The Economic Incentive of JINN
Finally, let's review these figures. It costs roughly $60k to acquire 1hash per second in BASE 2 consumer electrictronic. It costs roughly $2M to acquire enough BASE 2 hash rate to 34% the IOTA network. JINN, will be specifically manufactured hardware that will solve base 3 hashes natively. What this likely means, is that $1 spent on JINN will be much more effective at acquiring base 3 hash rate then $1 spent on base 2 hash rate.
The Economic Attrition Miners will feel
Finally, with bitcoin and traditional block chain applications there lies economic incentive to amass mining hardware. It first starts out by a miner earning income from his mining rig. He then reinvests those profits on additional hardware to increase his income. Eventually, this spirals into an arms raise where the players that are left in the game have increasingly available resources up until the point that there are only a handful of players left. This economic incentive, creates a mass centralization of computing resources capable of being misused in a coordinated effort to attack a cryptocurrency. IOTA aims to break this economic incentive, and the centralization that is causes. However, over the short term the fact that the centralization of such resources does exist is an existential peril to IOTA, and the COO is an inconvenient truth that we all have to live with.
Due to all the above, I think we can come to the following conclusions:
IOTA will not be able to remove the COO until the transactions per second (and ultimately hashrate) increase by orders of magnitude.
The performance of JINN processors, and their advantage of being able to compute natively on ternary operands and opcodes will be important for the value ratio of $USD / hash rate on the IOTA network
Existing mining hardware is at a fundamental disadvantage to computing base 3 hashes when compared to a JINN processor designed specifically for that function
Attrition of centralized base 2 hash power will occur if the practice of mining can be defeated and the income related to it. Then the incentive of amassing a huge amount of centralized computing power will be reduced.
JINN processors, and their adoption in consume electronics (like cell phones and cars) hold the key in being able to provide enough "bursty" hash rate to defend the network from 34% attacks without the help of the COO.
What are the super computer simulations? I think they are simulating a few things. They are modeling tip selection algorithms to reduce the amount of unverified transactions, however I think they may also be performing some simulations regarding the above calculations. JINN processors have not been released yet, so the performance benchmarks, manufacturing costs, retail costs, and adoption rates are all variables that I cannot account for. The IF probably has much better insight into all of those figures, which will allow them to better understand when the techno-economic environment would be conducive to the disabling of the COO.
The COO will likely be decentralized before it is removed. With all this taken into account, the date that the COO will be removed is years off if I was forced to guess. This means, that decentralizing the COO itself would be a sufficient stop-gap to the centralized COO that we see today.
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